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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also see the Australian team celebrate a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day before the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Squad Interest Builds

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the age of this side and especially the bowling unit. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test team being over 30, except for young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a problem: a Test team boasting a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a group of similarly-timed retirements, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a process that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only sit out the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the balance experiences a far greater shift with two key bowlers missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what new injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how tricky stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in series and a pattern of minor injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Future Uncertain

The back half of the contest may see the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition setting in much earlier than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane choice, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can hear that train a-coming, coming around the corner, and the English team hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.