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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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