🔗 Share this article

The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.